This column was originally published in The Wall Street Journal on October 31, 2025.
Reports that soybean farmers will receive $10 billion in tariff-relief payments from the federal government ought to make guys like me happy. The paradox is that it won’t be nearly enough to cover the real dollar losses. I’ll take the money if it comes., but it isn’t what farmers want. Recent promises from China to buy a “tremendous” amount of soybeans, as President Trump put it, aren’t good enough either. We want fair trade.
Steep fertilizer costs and low soybean prices have made it hard to make ends meet this year. We’re on the verge of the nation’s worst farm crisis since the 1980s. Mr. Trump’s trade wars are a big part of the problem. They’ve cost me and other farmers dearly.
Until recently, China was the largest buyer of U.S. soybean exports. In 2024, the Chinese purchased 985 million bushels of soybeans from the U.S., worth $12.6 billion. The Chinese have basically been boycotting us in retaliation for the tariffs. There have been no soybean sales to China since late May 2025. Instead, China has turned to other sources for this commodity, mainly in South America.
Brazil’s soybean exports this year are expected to hit record levels. Between January and August 2025, China purchased 2.8 billion bushels of Brazilian soybeans. Argentina’s are surging to a seven-year high. China’s purchase of 257 million bushels of Argentina soybeans represents one quarter of that country’s soybean and soybean meal production. Most of mine will sit unsold in a warehouse.
Farmers are accustomed to ups and downs. We have good years and bad years. Weather is the biggest variable. But we also contend with weeds, pests and fungus. This summer, for example, a dry August plus an outbreak of southern rust has depressed yields for corn, which I’ve just started to harvest. The results so far show about a 20% drop in productivity. Soon I’ll bring in the soybeans, which had the same weather but resisted disease. They look like they may give me an average yield.
These are Mother Nature’s ordinary challenges. Farmers know how to deal with them through experience, adaptability, technologies from precision agriculture to enhanced seeds and crop protection products, stoic acceptance as well as risk-management tools such as crop insurance. What we’re confronting now, however, isn’t a natural disaster but a manmade one.
Much of the media is describing the potential relief payments to American soybean farmers as a “bailout.” I see it as a slap in the face. The money won’t come close to making up for the hurt in farm country. I’m losing hundreds of dollars on every acre of soybeans. Using the average soybean yield of 55 bushels per acre on my farm when I budgeted for this year’s crop, I could not break even at almost $11 per bushel when planting. Now, prices are almost $2 less per bushel and yields are average or below average. It all adds up to a $9 billion loss for farmers. The pain has spread far beyond my fields. Over the dinner table and at the repair and parts counter of my local equipment dealer, the talk is the same. We are suffering.
Farmers are cutting costs where they can right now. A fertilizer salesman told me last week no one is buying his products because of the uncertainty. A farm equipment salesman said the same of his tractors and combines. A factory manager said his production is down by half due to weak demand. He just laid off 40 people—and he worries he’ll have to let even more go. Every person and business in rural America is feeling it.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is boasting. “We’re finding hundreds of billions of dollars of cash is pouring into our country now because of tariffs,” he said in August. “It’s so beautiful to see it.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s elaboration on Mr. Trump’s promise from China—12 million metric tons of soybeans through the rest of the year, 25 million tons over the next three—feels hollow. What happens if the Chinese don’t come through? More tariffs causing more pain to American farmers like me.
Border taxes serve no financial purpose if the federal government simply intends to redistribute the money it collects. This approach forces public officials to pick winners and losers, often using antiquated data and general calculations to distribute funds broadly across a commodity sector. It also turns self-sufficient producers into a class of people who plead for subsidies.
The government should get out of American farmers’ way and allow market forces to work. Don’t give us handouts. Let us sell what we grow to the people who want to buy it, at home and abroad.
